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Episode 755: The Soundtrack to Your World Series Weekend
Date October 30, 2015 Summary Ben and Sam banter about the Market Diner, then discuss World Series strategy and answer listener emails. Topics * New York Mets vs. Kansas City Royals World Series * How to pitch to the Royals * Adjusting expectations for Daniel Murphy's next contract * Shutdown innings and mental impact on pitchers * Players making their debut as a pinch runner * Pitchers pinch running * Bullpen construction based on fly ball/ground ball pitchers * Value of having an inside perspective on rival organizations Intro Elton John, "(Gotta Get A) Meal Ticket" Outro Semisonic, "Closing Time" Banter * Episode 748 follow-up: The Market Diner is closing on Sunday. He said it was six minutes the other day from when he sat down until he received his food. * Sam noticed that when in Sonoma, Ben's freezer was often just filled with a lot of one item (spinach, otter pops, and chicken breasts are mentioned). Email Questions * Eric (Millbrae, CA): "If Daniel Murphy's next contract value was 100% on October 8th and you were a GM with a need in the offseason what is it now? What more would he have to do to convince you to actually change your projections?" * Fergal (Ireland): "I was interested in your discussion on the shutdown inning as the Boston media became obsessed earlier in the year with Rick Porcello's supposed inability to produce a shutdown inning. This came to a head after a 5-2 loss to Baltimore when Porcello himself claimed that it was on his mind and that he felt he was pressing too hard in search of the shutdown inning. Could this be an example of a purely spurious notion, having an actual effect (ie a thing which is not a thing becoming a thing because enough people believe it to be a thing). Do you think that observer effects can produce measurable effects on player behavior, or how could that even be determined by the numbers assuming you can't inspect Rick Porcello's brain chemistry while he's on the mound." * Andrew: "With people talking more lately about ground ball/fly ball pitchers and their relative advantages over different kinds of hitters, I wondered does it make sense to apply some similar reasoning to the bullpen? Might we see a bullpen one day with a structure like closer/setup/fly ball guy/ground ball guy/lefty specialist/long man? Would a team do better or worse with a bullpen if they played the ground ball/fly ball matchup with their relievers instead of the lefty/righty matchup?" * John (Toronto, Canada): "With Mattingly on the market what impact could his intel on the new Dodgers' system have on the Padres considering hiring him? What value in picks or players or cash could we place on existing managers for the Dodgers to offer trades for managers like Hurdle, Hinch, or bench coaches from an organization they feel they can gain advantages from like you once mentioned the idea of replacing an entire organization with the Cardinals' pitching coaches. So, basically what value is there in knowing another team's system, whatever that entails?" Play Index * Sam uses the Play Index to look up players who made their debuts as pinch runners since it is possible that Raul Adalberto Mondesi may do that. * Since 1988 there have been 196 players who have made their MLB debut pinch running, including Billy Hamilton, Jose Bautista, and Terrance Gore. * From 1950-1987 there were 300 players to make their debut as pinch runners including Cal Ripken Jr., Tim Raines, Edgar Martinez, Kurt Flood, and Greg Maddux. * Sam then looks up instances of pitchers pinch running. With the introduction of the DH in the 1970s it began to decrease from 125-150 instances per year to as few as 18 in the 1980s. Notes * The Royals had the fifth highest chase rate in MLB this season. * Sam would not significantly increase his contract offer for Daniel Murphy based on the postseason, since he does not think about 50 at-bats will change his opinion on a batter. This is in contract to how a few starts can make significant impact on pitcher contract offers. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 755: The Soundtrack to Your World Series Weekend * World Series Weekend: Five Questions for Three (or Two) Royals-Mets Games by Ben Lindbergh Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes